Bitcoin Forecast by NEoWave(Update6)

In Update 4 of the Bitcoin analysis (dated April 14, 2025) , Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 at that time, and the overall market structure was framed within a larger Running Neutral Triangle that had begun on May 9, 2021.

Details of the Forecast in Update 4 (April 2025):

The 6-month cash data (6M) was examined in detail and showed that wave-D was expanding. We expected wave-D (as the longest wave in a Neutral Triangle) to rally toward the $150,000 area—but it failed to go beyond $126,000. It had been forecasted that after completing wave-D, Bitcoin would undergo a 50% retracement (correction) from the wave-D high. This correction was considered wave-E (the final wave of the triangle) and was expected to finalize the triangle structure.

Current Status (February 6, 2026):

Bitcoin’s price, exactly as forecasted in the April 14, 2025 analysis, experienced approximately 51% decline and reached around $60,000 from the $126,000 level. This sharp drop (more than 50% from the October 2025 ATH) ranks as one of the worst price declines since 2023—and we had precisely predicted it.

Lower Timeframe Cash Data Analysis and New Labeling:

In the 2-week cash data (2W), it is now clear that wave-(D) is a complex corrective structure completed in the form of a Diametric pattern. This relabeling is logical because:

Channeling, time similarities, and post-pattern behavior all confirm it. The 50% correction from $126k that occurred is, in fact, wave-(E) of the larger running neutral triangle—not a simple correction, but an integral part of the running triangle structure.

Two Main Current Scenarios for Wave-(E)

1- More Likely Scenario (Complex but Limited)

Wave-(E) can continue as a complex correction (e.g., Diametric – X – Triangle or another Diametric) and decline to the $62,000–$59,000 zone. Upon reaching this area, a strong upward move is expected (the start of a new wave after triangle completion)—likely a breakout toward higher targets such as $150,000–$200,000+ in the next cycle.